Stock Market Sentiment

(胡立阳)

10 yr treasury yield. 2.17% means higher price with a lot of liquidity. Switching between bond n stock mkt.

If hit 3.0% then mkt likely crashed....means interest rise.

Big boys are more informed 

than us. So if yield hit 3%... Interest likely up. 

May be 1-2 yr later.

(Bear mkt set in if:)

If mth chart down 12% or more

3 black mth candle in a row

Indx down from peak for >20% 

(Possible QE?)

Dar wong -

Wont be by next year. Credit rating will drop. However, if necessary, 2nd half of 2016. Because 2017 obama exit.

Daniel Loh -

Unlikely now. Unemployed down. Econ ok. Fomc member say if mkt crashed. 

Hu -

May or may not.

No lack of lidquidity.

QE unlikely. Its a bad thing.

Feb/march 2015 likely rate hike 

(Interest rate hike.)

Daniel -

Fomc has been transparent.  When int up a bit...ok... Until such a level that ppl cant service their loan.

Up to  Mid 2016 should be safe.

Hu -

Diff to trade mkt 2015(??)...int up how much?

It will go up slowly until such a level it will crash. 

When local FD int rate hit 3%.. dangerous level.

Dar wong -

0.125% rate rise typical. U$ index go up to to 86% ... Push up int indirectly.

Int rate stay unchange but U$ idx is a more reliable means to gauge d mkt trrnd.

Daniel - 

2015 mkt. Up n down.

200 day ma trending upward...still up trend.

(¥ vs U$ exchange rate.)

Dar wong -

Us vs china. 

if fluctuate around 6, its ok.

But china cant control if it become internationalized. Long term trend is uptrend.

Hu -

Europe not important. 5%.

Japan 1%.

Most important, U$.

QE hurts lay man. Low int n high inflation.

In 2-3 years time int rate will be back to normal. Stick mkt, property mkt will be pushed back to normal level.

Daniel - 

Cheap bargain in 1-2 week bottoming.

Dar wong - 

3 wave.. a-b-c wave.

Now Wave A...

C wave down early 2015... Tgt? Not sure

Next april-may.....depends on US..china interest trend.

From now until mid 2015... Likely down trend.